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Methodology · ProNot testable on our data

Portfolio Management: a complete guide to the method

Portfolio management allocates capital across instruments and strategies so that the combined risk is less than the sum of the individual risks.

Assets with incomplete correlation — drawdowns do not coincideasset Aasset Bportfolio (smoother)
Several assets with incomplete correlation: their drawdowns do not coincide, so the combined curve is smoother than any single one.
Requirements
ParameterValue
Between strategiesCorrelation matrix
Monthly/quarterlyRegular rebalance
For a diversification effect3+ strategies
At the portfolio levelUnified risk loop

How it actually works

The portfolio approach shifts the focus from the individual trade to the structure of the whole capital. The main question here is not “where will this instrument go” but “how to allocate funds across many instruments and strategies so that their drawdowns do not coincide.” Working diversification relies on incomplete correlation: when one part of the portfolio is in loss, another compensates for it.

The key and non-obvious property is that diversification reduces risk only if the components of the portfolio genuinely move differently. Ten instruments that rise and fall together give not diversification but one enlarged risk disguised as many. That is why portfolio management begins with an analysis of correlations, not with simply increasing the number of positions.

The second robust effect is regular rebalancing. By returning the weights to target, the portfolio systematically sells what has risen and buys more of what has fallen, which over a long distance adds to the result and reduces dependence on a single lucky choice. The discipline of allocation usually affects the outcome more than the choice of specific instruments.

Why this methodology cannot be honestly tested on our data

The point of portfolio management is in the interaction of several instruments with incomplete correlation: it is precisely the non-coincidence of their drawdowns that reduces the combined risk. On the data of a single pair, EUR/USD, no portfolio exists, and therefore neither diversification, nor rebalancing, nor risk reduction can be shown — all of this manifests only across several assets at once.

What an honest test would require
For an honest demonstration you need synchronised series of several instruments of differing nature, a calculation of their mutual correlations and a simulation of rebalancing. The diversification effect is visible only on a portfolio, not on a single asset.

We deliberately show no backtest here: presenting attractive figures computed on unsuitable data would mislead the reader. An empty space is more honest than an invented result.

Pros and cons

Pros
  • Reduces combined risk through the incomplete correlation of components.
  • Rebalancing systematically sells the expensive and buys the cheap.
  • The result depends less on a single lucky choice.
Cons
  • Illusory diversification from correlated assets does not reduce risk.
  • Requires data and an analysis of correlations between instruments.
  • In a moment of broad panic correlations rise and diversification weakens.

Nuances and pitfalls

The portfolio manager is undone by illusory diversification: a dozen instruments that rise and fall together create a sense of distributed risk, whereas in essence it is one enlarged bet. What makes it especially insidious is that correlations are not constant — in a moment of market panic they rush toward one, and assets that looked independent in calm times collapse simultaneously exactly when diversification is needed most. That is why a portfolio is judged not by the number of positions but by the real dissimilarity of their behaviour.

Who this methodology suits

For investors and managers working with several instruments and strategies at once and understanding that the allocation of capital affects the result more than the choice of an individual position. It requires an analysis of correlations and the discipline of rebalancing.

Frequently asked questions

Why can’t the portfolio effect be shown on a single pair?

Because the essence of portfolio management is in the interaction of several instruments with non-coinciding drawdowns. It is precisely the incomplete correlation between them that reduces the combined risk. On a single asset there is no diversification, no rebalancing and no portfolio effect — all of it manifests only across several instruments at once.

How many instruments are needed for diversification?

It is not about the number but about the dissimilarity of behaviour. Ten instruments moving together give not diversification but one enlarged bet. A few genuinely weakly related assets reduce risk more than dozens of correlated ones. A portfolio is judged by mutual correlations, not by the count of positions.

Why does diversification weaken during a crisis?

Because correlations are not constant. In calm times assets may move independently, but in a moment of broad panic participants sell everything at once and correlations rush toward one. Diversification weakens exactly when protection is needed most — a fundamental limitation that cannot be removed by selecting assets.

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