Three Soldiers and Three Crows: A Series as a Signal
Three white soldiers are three consecutive rising candles with higher closes; three black crows are the mirror image. In our EUR/USD sample soldiers appeared 37 times (51% up days after), crows 66 times (40%). The base rate of up days is 44%.
How three soldiers is defined
We require three consecutive candles in one direction with progressively improving closes. Classic sources add conditions on body and shadow sizes, but every additional condition makes the model rarer — and on a daily chart it is not a frequent visitor to begin with.
What happens inside the pattern
Three candles in a row in one direction is not a reversal signal but a statement about trend: one side has held control for a third day. The classic reading implies continuation. The flip side is that by the time the model completes, price has already travelled a noticeable distance, and entry happens far from the best point.
Entry and stop placement
Traded by the book, entry follows the third candle in the direction of the series, with a stop at its beginning. That makes the stop very wide: it spans the entire three-day move. It is more sensible to use the model as confirmation of direction for trades you were already planning than as an entry signal in its own right.
What the measurement showed
The formal definition was run over 400 daily bars of EUR/USD (2025-06-16 to 2026-07-20). Any result has to be compared against the sample's base rate of up days, which is 44%, not against half.
- Three white soldiers: 37 occurrences, next day closed higher in 51%
- Three black crows: 66 occurrences, next day closed higher in 40%
The measurement showed an asymmetry: after three crows the share of up days is noticeably below the base rate, after three soldiers slightly above. The direction is consistent with a continuation reading. But note the frequency: crows appeared almost twice as often as soldiers, which says more about the character of the period than about the model.
The frequency of the two mirror variants differed by almost a factor of two, and that says something about the period: the sample captured a market with a preponderance of declines. The figures describe one sample and one instrument rather than a property of the pattern in general — why that distinction matters is set out in our piece on sample size. The data is open and the method is in how we run backtests.
This material is educational and is not individual investment advice. Trading forex carries the risk of losing capital.
Frequently asked questions
How is three soldiers defined?
We require three consecutive candles in one direction with progressively improving closes. Classic sources add conditions on body and shadow sizes, but every additional condition makes the model rarer — and on a daily chart it is not a frequent visitor to begin with..
Does three soldiers work in practice?
The measurement showed an asymmetry: after three crows the share of up days is noticeably below the base rate, after three soldiers slightly above. The direction is consistent with a continuation reading. But note the frequency: crows appeared almost twice as often as soldiers, which says more about the character of the period t
Where should the stop go when trading three soldiers and three crows?
Traded by the book, entry follows the third candle in the direction of the series, with a stop at its beginning. That makes the stop very wide: it spans the entire three-day move.
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